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Who’s ahead in the Virginia governor’s race?

An updating average for each candidate, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency

Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. State polling averages are adjusted based on national trends, which means candidates’ averages can shift even in the absence of fresh state polls. Read more about the methodology.

DatesSamplei

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResultNet result
Datesi

SAMPLE TYPES

A

ADULTS

V

VOTERS

LV

LIKELY VOTERS

RV

REGISTERED VOTERS

PollsterResult

Governor, Virginia, 2021
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.AVG.

450LV
Oct.31-Nov.1
450LV
McAuliffe
47%
McAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

48%

Blanding

2%
48%
YoungkinYoungkin+1
747LV
Oct.26-Nov.1
747LV
McAuliffe
50%
McAuliffe
50%

McAuliffe

50%

Youngkin

47%
47%
Youngkin  McAuliffe+3
1,081LV
Oct.29-31
1,081LV
McAuliffe
47%
McAuliffe
47%

McAuliffe

47%

Youngkin

49%
49%
Youngkin  Youngkin+2
500LV
Oct.27-30
500LV
McAuliffe
45%
McAuliffe
45%

McAuliffe

45%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

2%
47%
YoungkinYoungkin+2
611LV
Oct.27-29
611LV
McAuliffe
46%
McAuliffe
46%

McAuliffe

46%

Youngkin

49%

Blanding

2%
49%
YoungkinYoungkin+3
571LV
Oct.14-28
571LV
McAuliffe
48%
McAuliffe
48%

McAuliffe

48%

Youngkin

47%

Blanding

1%
47%
YoungkinMcAuliffe+1
Icon indicating this set of polls has an average.avg.

Indicates a polling average for this poll type

Candidate is an incumbent

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Democratic-funded

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Campaign poll

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